To try to predict the number of infections (morbidity) and deaths (mortality) due to the coronavirus (CV), we can utilize the numbers from the influenza virus (IV) as a reference.  The original CV is said to be two times more contagious and up to 10 times more deadly.  The recent delta variant is more contagious; it may be less deadly.

IV data for the 2017-18 season are (approximately) 45 million infected, of which 21 million visited health care providers, 810,000 were hospitalized and 61,000 died.  With a US population in 2018 of 327 million, this translates to an infectivity rate of 14% and a death rate of 0.02%.

The IV’s low mortality rate of 0.02% is partly because there are adequate practitioners, hospital beds, and ventilators when needed. The system can handle the peak.

CV mortality, if it is twice as contagious and twice as deadly, will cause 240.000 deaths in a yearly season. As of September 1, 2020, approximately 183,000 have died.  This probably represents an over-estimation since providers (hospitals, nursing homes) are incentivized to code a death as from CV. However, if the “season” began sometime in Feb-March, then we are only half-way through the year. How it will change of the next months and seasons is part science, part guesswork.

Mitigating the severity of the infection with Vitamin C and other remedies has already been reported as helpful, was used in China, and is being used in New York.  Why is it not being reported in the media? More on immune boosting in the sidebar. 

The below documents provide some additional data. 

How Contagious Is the New Coronavirus, and How Does It Compare to Flu and SARS.r

Yale New Haven Health _ Influenza (Flu) vs Coronaviruses

How does the new coronavirus compare with the flu_ _ Live Science.r

The Mathematics of Predicting the Course of the Coronavirus _ WIRED